2024 NFL Draft: Grading Caleb Williams’ landing spot

© Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports[/caption]

There will be no quarterback controversy this time around for the Bears, as Williams will enter minicamps with the starter role locked up. In year’s past, players like Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields haven’t been given the keys right out of the gate, stunting their growth and making for a tough transition to the NFL.

For Williams, he enters a situation not many rookie QBs are able to. While head coach Matt Eberflus’s seat may be lukewarm at the moment, new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron relies on the passing game, helping acclimate Williams very quickly.

In terms of his supporting cast, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, DJ Moore, rookie Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift are all around Williams. Not only does Williams clearly have the best set of weapons for rookie QBs, he arguably has a top-10 supporting cast in the NFL.

Moore was the top target for Justin Fields, Allen was acquired on the cheap this offseason from the Chargers, and Odunze was a top-10 selection, and all three of these weapons should get plenty of work from Williams. With Waldron coming over from Seattle, he utilized a strong three-WR group, with Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all earning considerable work.

The interior of the OL is what needs more help than the tackle spots, but Williams excels when outside the pocket. His on-the-run throws are peppered all over his highlights, so if he has to break out, good things should still happen.

Year 1 Expectations

The expectations are through the roof for Williams in his rookie campaign, which has been the case for both Fields and Mitch Trubisky in the past. While those unrealistic expectations did not work out for either player, Williams is a different breed.

Having the type of weapons around him will elevate Williams to be an above-average QB right out of the gate. While less mobile than Anthony Richardson but with a stronger arm than C.J. Stroud, Williams likely will fall somewhere around Stroud’s numbers from his rookie campaign.

Projecting Williams’ interception total will be very interesting, especially since he never threw more than five picks in a collegiate season. While Stroud took care of the ball well in year one (five INTs), expecting Williams to sneak into double-digits does seem realistic.

How quickly Williams picks up the speed of the NFL depends on how well the coaching staff works with him this offseason. Expecting a seamless transition isn’t realistic, but Chicago should be able to bank on a big-time increase in passing output for the 2024 season.

2024 Stat Projections – 4,176 passing yards, 23 TDs, 10 INTs, 193 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs

Fantasy Football Impact

If Williams produces a stat line similar to what is above, he would come in right around QB12, which would put him as a borderline QB1 in 2024. While his rushing ceiling is far lower than what Fields brought to the table, it is still a big-enough part of his game that can elevate his stats even higher.

During his time with the Seahawks, Waldron was able to get Geno Smith moving, topping out at 68 carries (2022). During his time both at Oklahoma and Southern California, Williams averaged 96 carries per season.

Expecting Williams to replicate his near-triple digit rushing output isn’t realistic, but 80 carries shouldn’t be out of the question. Even though Smith wasn’t heavily used in the run game, Waldron (hopefully) understands that the best way to free up his receivers is to utilize the run game, something Williams can also be incorporated in.

If Williams finishes alongside the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, and Matthew Stafford, players that all finished around the QB12-15 mark in 2023, that would represent a successful rookie campaign.

Landing Spot Grade

Grade: A

It doesn’t take much to see that the Bears have done an excellent job (at least on paper) setting Williams up for success right out of the gate. A proven receiver core, plus a young WR to grow with him, is pretty much all you can ask for as a rookie QB.

Questions about the offensive line will need to be addressed this offseason, but Chicago boasts one of their better units in a few seasons. It still will be an uphill battle in the NFC North, but Williams has more than a fighting chance to turn the tides of QBs in the Windy City.